tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33881068259030922942024-02-20T18:41:51.271-08:00Philosophy ReviewedAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-25645349473417319872018-07-11T16:16:00.000-07:002018-07-11T16:16:05.780-07:00Minds and Machines on Causality and the Brain June 2018, Volume 28, Issue 2, <b><br /></b>
This volume of Minds and Machines is the product of a conference, which seems largely to have determined the contributions. Although purportedly about science, the essays are often principally directed at those philosophers of science who do not understand the banalities of the sciences they write about or are interested in. (Scientists tend to like this kind of stuff, because it is people saying what the scientists know or think. Everyone likes cheerleading.) Only one of the essays, Romeijin and Williamson's, makes any contribution a brain scientist could conceivably use.<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Romeijin and Williamson, Intervention and Identification in Latent Variable Modeling</b><br />
<br />
<br />
The authors actually do something. They show that if X, Y, L are binary, and L is the common cause of X, Y, and X, Y are measured and L is unmeasured and there and there are no other causal relations between X and Y, then an exogenous perturbation of the distribution of L allows identification of p(X | L) and p(Y | L) (and of course, p(X,Y | L) for all values of L, without knowledge of the distributions of L before and after perturbation except that the distributions are different. <br />
<br />
Of course, it isn't true if the relation between X, Y and L is linear, or if besides the common cause, X influences Y, or if L has more than two values, etc.<br />
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The authors give no empirical example that realizes their result. Still, they did something.<br />
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<b>Colombo and Naftali, <span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">Discovering Brain Mechanisms Using Network Analysis and Causal Modeling</span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">This is a book--or rather multi-paper--report. While there is nothing new in it, the essay is sensible and measured. Unfortunately, it is not up-to-date on search methods for causal signaling relations between brain regions estimated by fMRI or EEG, not even close. Things are happening, fast.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">Perhaps philosophers writing what are essentially judgemental review essays ought to talk first with some of the people actually doing the work?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">Winning and Bechtel, </span><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">Rethinking Causality in Biological and Neural Mechanisms: Constraints and Control</span></b><br />
<br />
Aside from a foray into the "causality power" i (read "oomph") bit of metaphysics, this essay, like many of Bechtel's, is a paradigm of saying the scientifically banal without furthering anything. Banalities, of course, are generally true.<br />
<b><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;"><br /></span></b>
<li class="u-mb-2 u-pt-4 u-pb-4" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; display: inline-block; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 2px !important; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px !important; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 4px !important; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="authors__name" itemprop="name" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Gottfried Vosgerau and Patrice Soom, </span></li>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">Reduction Without Elimination: Mental Disorders as Causally Efficacious Properties</span><b><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">Here is the upshot:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">"our proposal is to analyze mental disorders as higher-level dispositional properties that cause specific symptoms under specific conditions, and that are token-identical to complex physical states. This proposal secures the causal efficacy of mental disorders and their crucial role in explanations, while specifying the systematic relation to lower levels of descriptions as found in neurology and neurochemistry". </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">That's nice. Thank you Donald Davidson.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<h1 class="ArticleTitle" lang="en" style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em; line-height: 1.3; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Source Sans Pro", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: normal;">Matthew Baxendale and Garrett Mindt, </span>Intervening on the Causal Exclusion Problem for Integrated Information Theory</span></h1>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">In gyrations through discussions of the mental and the physical, I look for the takeaway. Here is theirs:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">"According to IIT there is an </span><span class="EmphasisTypeBold " style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">identity between phenomenological properties of experience and informational properties of physical systems</span><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">…The maximally irreducible conceptual structure (MICS) generated by a complex of elements is identical to its experience… An experience is thus an intrinsic property of a complex of mechanisms in a state."</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">Speaking of thoughts of complex mechanisms, I wonder what Pluto is thinking now that it's not a planet but still a complex of mechanisms.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;">I did not read the paper. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.102px;"><br /></span>
<h1 class="ArticleTitle" lang="en" style="background-color: #fcfcfc; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em; line-height: 1.3; margin: 0px 0px 8px;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Sebastian Wallot and Damian G. Kelty-Stephen, Interaction-Dominant Causation in Mind and Brain, and Its Implication for Questions of Generalization and Replication</span></h1>
<b><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: 0.008em;">I am tired, but just in case you want to read it, you will learn again that that lots of variables affect what people do, so generalization in psychology is hard.</span><br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-83268842222574528472018-06-29T21:36:00.000-07:002018-06-29T21:36:05.298-07:00Dinner at Princeton Comeuppance
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<h1 style="line-height: 150%;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">N.B. This is a true personal memory about philosophers, not a review,</span></b></h1>
<h1 style="line-height: 150%;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></b></h1>
<h1 style="line-height: 150%;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Dinner in Princeton, or How Bas van Fraassen Shut Up a Bigot, Albeit in a Politically Incorrect Way--He Had It Coming<o:p></o:p></span></b></h1>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">There were
things—most things—about Princeton my wife did not like in 1970, and one thing
she did, working at a women’s health clinic in inner city (read:, black)
Trenton with Rennie Hampshire. In her fifties, Rennie was slim and energetic
with the bones and eyes and skin that make for that rare type, a beautiful
English woman. She had once been the wife of a famous English philosopher, A.J.
Ayer, but was at the time the wife of a still more famous English philosopher,
Stuart Hampshire, who was the Chairman of my department. She was a busy person
in occupation and manner, never still, and she had a ferocity of spirit that
set her apart from anyone else I can remember in my life. Stuart often remarked
with pride—and I assume with truth—that she had been the first woman to ride a
motorcycle across the United States, but now her energies were directed to a
poor black community in a depressed state capital. (In those days, as you
crossed the Delaware River into Trenton, you were welcomed by the most
self-piteous sign: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Trenton Makes, the
World Takes</i>. And doesn’t give much back.) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The clinic, in the basement of an undistinguished
building, provided gynecological services, birth control, pregnancy testing and
check-ups, abortion referrals (to New York—abortion was illegal in New Jersey
then), advice and help of many kinds. It was funded, so far as I could tell,
almost entirely by the efforts of Rennie Hampshire. Her husband’s position put
her often at dinner parties and other social gatherings with the well-heeled
and the immensely rich, and she used these chances shamelessly to extort
contributions for the clinic. I recall watching her with admiration at a dinner
party in her own home, first telling some well-to-do guest about the clinic and
it’s needs, and then, after dinner, pursuing him until they retired to the
kitchen, one to give a check and one to receive. She was not just a fund
raiser. She worked at the clinic as did any non-medical volunteer, doing
whatever she could that needed doing, from counseling patients to filing
records to scrubbing. My wife, Anita, helped her and loved doing it, and she
loved Rennie. Rennie alone in Princeton showed Anita that Anita’s world—the
world of poor, simple people, the world of personal charity—counted, and
counted more than the hot house of Princeton refinements, where Anita never
felt welcome or at home or free to breathe. Anita was never so happy as when
leaving for Trenton, and never so exhilarated as when she returned.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Rennie had her eccentricities. She would leave small
gifts—tea, or chocolates—on our porch, but on the several occasions Anita or I
caught her at it, she refused to come into the house. When she and Stuart once
came to dinner, she insisted on washing the dishes. I think she was determined
not to be fussed over, but really did not quite understand the peculiar texture
of lower middle class American formality and informality. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Of all things Princetonian, Anita most despised
faculty dinner parties. Her prejudice was confirmed one evening when, after I
had begged her on behalf of my career, we attended a party at the home of an
eminent (about as eminent as an academic gets) professor of history of science,
Thomas Kuhn. The professor’s wife, whom Anita found particularly cold, greeted
us at the door and threw her arms around my wife in a grand hug, exclaiming how
delighted she was that we—and my wife in particular—had come. Anita reddened,
not in embarrassment, but in pleasure. I followed them into the house, our
hostess walking with her arm wrapped around my wife’s waist. Half way to the
other guests, she leaned her mouth to Anita’s ear and I heard her whisper: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Do remind me, dear, what is your name?</i>
An understandable lapse, surely, but Anita never attended another faculty
party, except once.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Bas van Fraassen is a man to envy: handsome, elegant,
charming, original, brilliant, sensitive and European; even nowadays, past seventy,
he can pull off dressing like a rock star and can fly the trapeze. We were friends,
and his warmth and charm made Anita forgive him his occupation (he professed
philosophy at Yale then). He liked her too. He was visiting us in Princeton one
weekend when, on Saturday morning, Anita answered a phone call from a colleague
of mine, Margaret Wilson, inviting us to dinner that evening, with apologies
for the short notice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anita had the
perfect excuse—we had a guest for the weekend—but she erred in revealing the
guest’s name. Margaret, who was a straightforward person, immediately said to
bring him, and Anita was stuck. So, with Bas, we went to dinner at the
Wilson’s.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The party was small: the three of us, Margaret, her
husband, and another colleague, George Pitcher. George was tall, slender and
athletic—the only faculty member who hit home runs at the annual faculty versus
student softball game—with a full head of brushy hair that fell over his
forehead in a boyish cowlick but seemed never to be out of place, altogether an
extraordinarily handsome man who had at least three loves, his housemate, Ed,
and a pair of stray dogs that had taken up residence with them and about which
he later wrote a very sentimental book. George was a polite and to appearance a
gentle man, but, as I discovered when serving with him as the junior member of
a committee of two that made minor personnel decisions, he was privately the
kind of bigot that once flourished in Princeton, the kind for which there is
only a neologism, a classist. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">We sat in the Wilson’s dining room, next to a cool
bower, around a circular table centered with a bowl of fruit, and had drinks
and nibbles and get reacquainted talk before dinner. The talk, inevitably,
turned to academic gossip, who is doing what, going where, with whom, the sort
of thing that fascinates academic neighbors and bores everyone else, not least
Anita, who sat quietly with the bland look that I knew hid an interior woe: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not this again.</i> Professors, philosophy
professors anyway, at parties scarcely ever talk about ideas (that’s business),
or politics (they all have the same, or none), or religion (what’s to talk
about?), or sex (not done), or money (not done), or sports (intensely not
done). Its gossip, travel and high culture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Somehow, Rennie Hampshire’s name came up, and I think Anita mentioned
her work in Trenton. George, in his quiet but forceful and authoritative voice,
began a rant: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What was she doing there,
among the refuse of the city? Why not leave those people to themselves? The
trouble with Rennie is that she does not respect her own class. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">The denunciation did not stop, and as it continued
Anita changed in color, her smooth face lined in anger, and, I knew,
frustration. Her good manners conspired with her sense of social unease; she
could not speak without demonstrating her anger. I objected ineffectually, but
George talked over me. The Wilson’s looked uncomfortable and said nothing while
George went on into the evils of crossing the borders of social strata that he
seemed to think should be guarded with machine guns and barbed wire, Berlin
walls of Class.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Noting Anita’s distress and my clumsiness, Bas quietly
reached an elegant arm to the centerpiece and removed a banana. Smiling at
George, he carefully peeled back half the skin of the fruit, and then,
delicately, began to lick the tip. Eyes still full on George, still silently,
he pushed the end of the banana into his mouth and, moving it back and forth,
began to suck. George reddened, then blushed, and fell silent for the rest of
the evening, shamed, if not for the right reason, then, at least, for the wrong
one. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--EndFragment--><br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-15614984270653021912018-06-29T19:56:00.000-07:002018-07-09T16:01:00.896-07:00Hayley Clatterbuck, The Logic Problem and the Theoretician's DilemmaWhile surfing around I ran across Hayley Clatterbuck's, essay, The Logical Problem and the Theoretician<span class="s1"><b>’</b></span>s Dilemma, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research doi: 10.1111/phpr.12331 in a journal I usually don't read. It is almost good, just tiptoes up to goodness and gets no farther, leaving some oddities and bad arguments along the way and huge opportunities untouched. It reminded me of two occasions. On one, Judea Pearl asked a dinner party of UCLA philosophers "Why don't you guys <i>do</i> anything?" On another, after hearing two hours of lectures by Alvin Goldman on the difference between "hard wired" and "soft-wired" capacities, Allen Newell asked: "So what has your laboratory discovered about hard wired capacities?"<br />
<br />
Clatterbuck's problem is the warrant for attribution of understanding to creatures that are not human. She rightly sees that claims of behavioral evidence for such attributions come face to face with the behaviorist version of Hempel's Theoretician's Dilemma. She first proposes that understanding can be established by having independent observable stimuli with correlated responses, inviting explanation by a mediating variable. She represents this by a graphical causal model, roughly<br />
<br />
E1 : S1 R1 <br />
U<br />
E2: S2 R2<br />
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-size: small;">with arrows S1 -> U; S2 -> U; U -> R1; U -> R2. Citing the Causal Markov Condition, which she modestly says she does not fully understand, she claims the graphical model above implies that R1 and R2 are correlated. (That is correct but since S1 and S2 are mutually exclusive, they are associated, so perhaps they should be collapsed into a single variable with 2 values; but Clatterbuck does not want the experimental treatment to be a variable common cause of the results.) She rightly goes on to object that nothing says the mediating variable U has to be some state of understanding; it could be a lot of different things. So she goes on to suggest that designs are needed in which U -> R1 is a positive association and U -> R2 is negative, or vice-versa. I guess the idea is that understanding would produce positive associations in some circumstances and negative ones in others that were perceptually similar. So here is a good reason for positing a mediating variable, essentially using Reichenbach's common cause principle, and an argument I don't fully understand for it's interpretation.</span><br />
<br />
However that works out, her discussion is lexically odd. She says that the graphical model shown, which produces (with Faithfulness) an association between R1 and R2 is "syntactical" but the revised model that produces a <i>negative</i> association is "semantic." Associations are syntactic but negative associations are semantic?Since "syntactic" is a term of abuse in contemporary philosophy of science, I wonder at the rationale for her terminology. But on to something more serious.</div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-size: small;">She argues, I think, that the schema illustrates a way round the Theoretician's Dilemma. Following John </span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">Earman, Clatterbuck argues that prior evidence, call it E,</span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">provides
“inductive support” for some theory t, and t entails (and hence predicts) some new
phenomenon N which thus would not have been predicted without recourse to t.</span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">Earman puts the argument in Bayesian terms,
as does Clatterbuck.</span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">But if t entails N
then Pr(N, E) ≥ Pr(N, t, E) hence Pr(N | E) ≥ Pr(N | t, E) Pr(t | E) = Pr(t |
E): the novel phenomenon is at least as probable on the prior evidence as is
the theory on the same evidence. </span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">The
Bayesian could skip the theory and go directly to the predicted
phenomenon.</span><span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"> So that doesn't work.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">Towards the end of her essay, she reformulates the idea in a way that I think she takes to be just an elaboration of Earman's (bad) argument, but is not: </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">“In a case of </span><i style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;">within‐domain
extrapolation</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">, an empirical regularity within a domain is redescribed in
terms of a theoretical relation which is then extrapolated to </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">unobserved cases of that same domain. In a case
of </span><i style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12pt;">cross‐domain extrapolation</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">, empirical regularities in domain A
and B are redescribed in terms of the same theoretical relation, and it is
induced that what is true of A is also true of B.”</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">I read this suggestion this way: given data from cases in one domain, find "theoretical" features of those cases that hold in another domain, and use those invariant features to predict about data in this second domain. That would be a reason for theories. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;">Ok, how can that be done...what is the script, the recipe? How can such invariant theoretical features be found? Nada. Full stop in Clatterbuck's essay. My graduate student, Biwei Huang, has an illustration for neuroscience. Taking fMRI images from subjects in one laboratory, she identifies strengths of some neural causal relations ("effective connections" in contemporary neuropsychology jargon) that separate autistic subjects from normals. She then uses the presence (or absence) of these connections and their strengths inferred from fMRI scans from another laboratory (another "domain") to predict autistic versus normal in the second laboratory (actually, in each of several other laboratories). </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria"; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">This is a pretty neat illustration of the invariance strategy whose suggestion I attribute to Clatterbuck. And it does defeat the Theoreticians Dilemma: you couldn't make comparably accurate predictions by, say, comparing the correlations among fmri signals in different brain regions in subjects in one lab with those in another lab. People have tried. </span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">Huang's example is just that, not a general procedure for learning theoretical invariants for cross-domain classification. My colleague, Kun Zhang, has developed one, explicitly in those terms. Of course, that leaves a lot of room for work on the description of general procedures for other kinds of cross-domain invariants, of which physics provides many examples, e.g., classical thermodyanmics.</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">Afterword: Goldman replied to Newell that there is a division of labor: philosophers help science by posing the problems and distinctions; psychologists investigate them in the laboratory. Newell said thanks, but psychologists have no trouble doing both jobs. </span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">References</span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;">B. Huang, Diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder by Causal Influence Strength Learning from Resting-Stae fMRI Data, M.S. Thesis, Department of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, 2018.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1c1d1e; font-family: "cambria";"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Gong, M., Zhang, K., Huang, B., Glymour, C., Tao, D., & Batmanghelich, K. (2018). Causal Generative Domain Adaptation Networks. </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">arXiv preprint arXiv:1804.04333</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">.</span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Counting the Deer in Princeton<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Remarks on Constructive Empiricism
and on Nora Boyd, “Evidence Enriched,” <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Philosophy
of Science</i>, 85, 2018 <o:p></o:p></div>
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Once upon a time, philosophers thought that scientific
theories are collections of statements about the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The statements have logical connections that
could be studied mathematically by the idealization of formal languages, and
the statements have semantic relations that could be studied mathematically by
the idealization of model theory, supplemented by various accounts of how terms
in the language or mathematical objects in the models relate to things one can
see, hear or touch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then along came
constructive empiricism, which kept the idealized models but did away entirely
with the formalized language and the logical relations it characterized and
said little about how mathematical objects in the models relate to things one
can see, hear or touch. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Rather belatedly, two difficulties with constructive
empiricism were noticed. The first was, indeed, how the models relate to things
we can see, hear or touch, a matter that is, after all, at the heart of
empiricism. The answer given is so odd that one might have thought the author
was just kidding. The idea is that the theorist has a mathematical data model,
and either that model can be embedded in a model of the theory or it cannot be.
Van Fraassen considers a theory T of the growth of the deer population in
Princeton, and the theorist’s data model, a graph of the variation of the deer
population over time. He writes: <b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“</span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Since this is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">my</i> representation of the deer population
growth, there is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">for me</i> no difference
between the question whether T fits the graph and the question whether T fits
the deer population growth<b>” </b>(256). </span>The question of whether the
mathematical model describes the actual deer population (not <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">for me</i>, but in fact) does not arise; it
is not even sensible.<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Suppose we ask a scientist how the
curve of deer population growth in Princeton was obtained, and we are told “For
each of several years, I counted the number of hoof marks in Princeton and
divided by 4.’” We advise the scientist that his curve may be a severe
overcount, since the same deer makes many more than 4 hoof marks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The scientist replies that there is no point
to the challenges. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the critics have a
different theory, construct their own data model. Constructive empiricism,
after all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suppose
a group of physicists launch a mass spectrometer aboard a satellite to record
ion concentrations above the atmosphere. They fail to calibrate the instrument
before launch, with the result that it returns values in wild disagreement with
previous measurements. (This really happened with the Swedish Freya satellite.)
Would the scientists use the data anyway to try to publish a new estimate of
ion concentrations? Would referees and a journal editor not care?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course they would care, and what the scientists
actually published was a procedure for calibrating the spectrometer in-flight.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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No one who takes science seriously can take seriously this
constructive empiricist account of how data and theory meet. Nora Boyd does. Her essay focuses on
facts familiar to anyone who has read almost any scientific paper: scientific<span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> data typically are accompanied by ancillary information that
records the provenance of the measurements: what instruments were used, how
they were calibrated and shielded, what resolutions of space or time or other
variables were obtained, how were the data censored, or clustered or
transformed, what statistical procedures were used, how were the units selected
for measurement or treatment, where </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">and when the
measurements were made, whether the study was blinded or double-blinded, etc.
This sort of information is typically given in the body of scientific reports
or in supplementary material or in documents attached to databanks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Framing her story as an extension of
Van Fraassen’s, she claims the value of such ancillary information is twofold: it
helps multiple data sources to be used for related problems or
investigations or arguments and it “breaks underdetermination.” I agree it does
the first, but not in a way that is accommodated by constructive empiricism. I doubt
it does the second in any sense except that of allowing further tests of a
theory or theories; if some other theory can account for all of the same
possible evidence—Quine’s sense of underdetermination—combining data sets won’t
distinguish them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the main thing
such information does is something she ignores, something to which van Fraassen
seems to think there is no point:</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it gives assurances
that the measurements have not been made by a process that disqualifies them as
premises in the assessment of a theory or theories because the measurements are
not faithful to the quantities claimed to be measured; and it provides
information to investigate whether such assurances are unwarranted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On constructive empiricist grounds, there is
no point to such assurances and no point to arguments that quantities have been
mismeasured, or to arguments that data treatments destroyed information, or to
objections that in view the provenance of the data the wrong statistical
procedures were used, or that the experimental design leaves open alternative
explanations of the data whose possibility better designs would have eliminated
etc. Boyd misses all of that, perhaps because once science is cast in a
constructive empiricist framework, faithfulness to the phenomena, truth, is not
the point.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Boyd’s suggestion that ancillary information helps in the
proper use of multiple data sets for a question, or the same data set for
multiple problems is of course correct, but it is unintelligible in the
constructive empiricist framework.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And that is the second belatedly noticed problem with constructive
empiricism. On the old-fashioned view, language provides linkages between
models. Language makes the connections that a relation in one model is the same
relation as in another model. As Hans Halvorson points out, there is no such connection
in constructive empiricism, only so many disconnected models, so many monads. A
theory that constrains quantities conditionally, Newtonian dynamics for
example, has many models under different conditions. One would like to say that
the force holding the planets in their orbits is the same as the force acting
on pendula, and indeed Newton says just that. On the constructive empiricist
reconstruction, these are just different models of the theory, and nothing
identifies the property <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">acceleration</i>,
in one model with the property, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial narrow";">acceleration</span></i>, in another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the old-fashioned philosophy of science that
is one of the services of language. Boyd tell me (private communication) that she does not endorse this part of "constructive empiricism," and she does refer to "minimal empiricism." <o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
Minimal empiricism turns out to be bad wine in new bottles. Citing van Fraassen, she says data are acquired to a theoretical purpose, to support, or not, a particular theory, and data are empirical only with respect to such a purpose. Being empirical for a purpose is just what has been called, since longtime, being relevant to a theory or hypothesis. So what determines that relevance? No answer. If I collect data on the spread of California poppies is that relevant to a hypothesis about the acceleration of the universe? Is it if I <i>say</i> that is its purpose? Of course, there is no theory of relevance in "constructive empiricism" either. If a theory combines dynamics for the universe with dynamics for the spread of poppies, and someone's "data model" for poppies fits into it, is that evidence for the dynamics I postulate for the universe?<br />
<br />
Boyd is a new Ph.D from Pitt HPS, and it is not fair to take her to task. Who then? Pitt HPS. They take smart young people and make them, well, without a sense of what it is personally to discover something worth discovering, even the development of an actually new idea. As Pitt HPS goes, so goes philosophy of science in America, pretty much.</div>
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<!--EndFragment--><br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-37601641924569533422016-08-16T18:17:00.001-07:002018-06-22T14:47:35.827-07:00Recent Books on Causation III: Carolina Sartorio, Causation and Free Will, Oxford, 2016<style>
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Carolina Sartorio, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Causation
and Free Will</i>, Oxford, 2016</div>
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The styles of philosophy change. Spinoza gave us axioms,
from which it was patent his “theorems” did not follow. Hobbes, and Locke and
Hume gave as long essays. Berkeley and Hume, dialogues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nowadays, philosophical style is more often
like a video game with unspoken rules: the reader is told the author has a
goal, followed by example, counterexample, perplex after perplex, which the
author dispatches one after another, like so many arcade mopes, with occasional
reverses to revive the dead and kill them again. Double tap. And, then,
finally, the reader reaches The Theory. Or not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ellery Ells’ endlessly annoying <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Probabilistic
Causality</i> is like that, and so, less endlessly—hers is a short, dense book--is
Carolina Sartorio’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Causation and Free
Will</i>. You can’t say Ells didn’t think hard about his topic, he did, and so
evidently has Sartorio, but you can say that both of them, and a lot of other
philosophers, could have made reading and understanding a lot easier by laying
cards on the table to begin with. At least her syntax is not contrived to hide
banality beneath bafflement.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Shelled and peeled, the story is this: an action is done
freely by a person if (and I suppose only if) the person caused the action via
a sequence of events that included, as actual causes, rational (given the
person’s desires and beliefs) reasons for the act and absences of reasons not
to do it, absences, again, as actual causes in “a normal, non-deviant way.” (p.
135).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
How can absences of reasons be causes, you ask. Easy, you
ate ice cream because you did not have a reason not to of the kind “I am
allergic to ice cream” because you are not allergic to ice cream and you know
it. So the absence of that reason was a cause of your eating ice cream. In the
vernacular, we allow absences as causes all the time: my tomato plants died
because I didn’t water them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course,
if metaphysicians take the vernacular literally and allow absences as causes
then they <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>will have an infinity of them
in every case: my plants died because Barack Obama did not water them, and so
on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sartorio is content with that, and
presumably content with an infinity of such ghost causes accompanying every
cause that actually happens. Essentially, every ceteris paribus clause becomes
an infinity of actual but non-actual (because absent) causes. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Absences as causes might seem gratuitous in her story. They
are there because she wants to distinguish, on the one hand, between courses of
action in which the agent would be sensitive to reasons against the action were
the reasons real (the absent causes) and, on the other hand, courses of
reasoning in which the agent would not be sensitive to similar reasons were
they real (the absent non-causes).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Philosophy is in some places Humpty-Dumptyish, and metaphysicians are
legally free to talk as they want, including saying that if in deciding to do
something you would be sensitive to a reason, were you to have it, a reason that
you do not in fact have, then the absence of that reason is a cause of what you
do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t think such talk helps
anything, and in science, where absences are ceteris paribus clauses or shorthands
for unknown (or boring) positive details, it’s silly. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Absences as causes necessitate recourse to “a normal and
non-deviant way,” she argues, because the absence of a reason could be a cause
of an effect because, were the reason to be present, that would cause some external
process <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Sartorio likes examples with
miraculous neuroscientists standing ready to intervene) to prevent the effect,
and so the agent would be “sensitive” to the absence of the reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ever since it became abundantly clear that we are biological
and physical machines, not just our bodies, as Descartes allowed, but the whole
of us, as Helmholtz allowed, philosophers doing “moral psychology” have tried
to reconcile us to the loss of the Thomistic/Cartesian fancy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The plain fact seems to be that we do not
have anything of the kind that Aquinas and Descartes claimed for us. So live
with it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Daniel Dennett (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Elbow Room</i>) assures us that we should be
content, even happy with our state; it gives us everything we could want. He is
wrong. We could want not to be <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">like that</i>,
and most of us do. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that</i> is a
machine whose workings are determined—or at least caused—by forces that
antedated us. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that</i> is a person
who has as a zygote or neonate been implanted with a device that determines her
subsequent responses to her environment. We do not want to be <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">like that</i> even if nature did the
implanting. To be in human bondage, and know it, is one of the metaphysical
agonies.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One compatibilist response to the metaphysical agony is that
it pines for an incoherence, that there could not <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">thinkably </i>be a system of the kind Descartes and Aquinas claimed us
to be. But of course there could. We have perfectly clear mathematical theories
of non-deterministic automata, whose transitions between states (Hilary Putnam
once thought of them as mental states) are neither determined nor
probabilistic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The other compatibilist
response is Orwellian, meaning changing the language. I think Sartorio’s
response is of the Orwellian kind, but tempered. She says she has the intuition
that if the human machine is formed by nature, well, its actions can be free.
She doesn’t offer a survey of others’ opinions. Bless her, she elaborates only
on the condition that her intuition is correct.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There remains the serious scientific project of how consciousness,
and deliberation happen, and how they came about, and the sociological,
anthropological project of understanding the conditions under which various
communities claim free agency and when they do not, and how those conditions
(which have evidently changed) come about as a social process, and perhaps the
moral project of consoling those who agonize for the loss of free will, but
there doesn’t remain anything metaphysical to do about freedom of the will.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing, at least, of value. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-34230704299518131752016-08-15T16:34:00.002-07:002018-06-22T14:49:15.414-07:00Recent Books on Causation II, Douglas Kutach, Causation<style>
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<u>Douglas Kutach,<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">
Causation, </i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Polity Press, 2014</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This, too, is an introductory book, but a good one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The author mixes in historical sources with a
wide ranging, and generally accurate and informative exposition of contemporary
(i.e, since 1946) accounts of the metaphysics of causation. It has some
sensible questions for readers. I would use it as a textbook, with some
apologies to the students. What apologies?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Like most other discussions of the metaphysics
of causality, Kutach appeals to what we think we know for motivation, examples
and counterexamples, but there is not the least hint of how causes can be, and
are, discovered.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>While the book is less mathophobic than most
philosophy texts, it is not always mathematically competent, doesn’t use what
it does develop well, and presents mathematical examples that will be
unenlightening or worse to most students.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Early on “linearity” is discussed a propos of
causal relations, but the author clearly doesn’t mean linearity. It is not
clear what he means. Monotonicity perhaps, or non-interaction.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Having introduced conditioning and independence
and the common cause principle, there is a rather opaque discussion of
Reichenbach’s attempt to define the direction of time by open versus closed
“conjunctive forks” but the author fails to note that closed forks become open
when common causes are conditioned on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One question asks students to describe a graphical causal model with a
specific probability feature, which would have been straightforward if the
reader had been given an illustration of how graphical causal models are
parameterized to yield probability relations, but that did not happen.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>As an example of uncertain extensions of
familiar cases, students are referred to transfinite arithmetic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some help.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Some the exposition could be more attractive,
notably the explanations of token versus type, singular versus general.
Distinctions (never mind notation) from formal logic are suppressed everywhere,
even when they would help. The presentation of determinism is unclear and
inadequate.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Metaphysical discussions of causality inevitably
make claims about what people would say without any consideration of what
people do say. The extensive psychological literature on causal judgement, some
of which has interesting theories, is entirely ignored.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>And sometimes the author says exactly the
opposite of what he means—slip of the keyboard?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
Ok, nothing is perfect, there
could be better textbooks, but this one is usable, which is to say, given the alternatives, outstanding.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-39708037973075019342016-08-13T12:55:00.000-07:002018-06-22T14:42:07.231-07:00<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Recent Books on Causation, from the Really, Horribly Bad to the So-So to the Pretty Good</span></h2>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">There is a bunch of books on causation recently. I expect to review them all here in due time. At least one is so bad that it does not deserve reviewing, let alone having been published, but at least there should be a warning somewhere. So here.</span></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"> </span></h2>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">I. The Worst: Stephen Mumford and Rani Lill Anjum, <i>Causation, A Very Short Introduction, </i>Oxford, 2013</span></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i> Causation </i>is meant to be a quick introductory text surveying contemporary and historical views of causation. For an astute reader, it would be very quick, stopping at, say, page 12. Should in misplaced charity that reader venture on, she would find chapters badly organized, missing their targets (e.g, "finding causes" is reduced to an uninformative mention of randomized, controlled trials), historically uninformed, and terribly referenced. But, as I say, any reader on cortical alert would throw the book away around page 12. There, the authors address Russell's early argument that causes cannot be fundamental because causes are asymmetrical and the fundamental laws of physics are symmetrical equations.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">Russell is wrong they say, because "equations have at least some directionality." Here is their argument:</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">"We say that 2 + 2 = 4, for instance, which is to say that each side is of equal sum. But is is less obvious that 4 = 2 + 2 insofar as 4 can also be the sum of 1 + 3. The point is that 2 +2 can equal only one sum 4, whereas 4 can be the sum of several combinations (2 and 2, 1 and 3, 10 minus 6, and so on). And in this respect there is at least some asymmetry." (pp 12-13)</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">Somewhere, in Norway or Nottingham, the transitivity of equality, and Russell's point, was missed. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">Then, in nice condescension, the authors write that </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">"Second, Russell's account was based on his understanding of the physics of 1913. There have been a number of attempts by physicists to put asymmetry back into physical theory. One such notion is entropy, which an irreversible thermodynamic property."</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">The last clause of the last sentence is a bit of nonsense, --it's not the property that is irreversible, it's changes in it, </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">but more importantly </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">the idea of entropy, and the word, had been in physics for about 50 years when Russell wrote. In 1913, Russell didn't understand the physics of 1913, and neither, apparently, did the authors in 2013. </span></span><br />
<br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-84378566493084389652016-01-13T10:02:00.000-08:002016-08-12T09:15:41.757-07:00The ;Nonsense of "The Stone"<style>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
The New York Times occasional philosophy column, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Stone</i>, has built a reputation for
unilluminating heat, slovenly inference and wanton accusations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Almost any column would do as an example. I
will take a recent reflexive example, “<a href="http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/01/11/when-philosophy-lost-its-way/">When
Philosophy Lost its Way”</a> in the January 11, 2016 Times.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
First, what way did philosophy lose?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The high moral ground, for one thing, say the
Texan authors. Philosophers of yesteryear (before the 19<sup>th</sup> century)
showed integrity and selflessness. Our contemporaries by and large do not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The study of philosophy, in yesteryear,
elevated those who pursued it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of old,
philosophers were concerned with human functions and purposes. Now they are
not. Philosophy was a quasi-priesthood, a vocation. Now it’s just a job.
Philosophy of old was spread among the professions, the idle rich, etc. Now
it’s confined to philosophy professors.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Second, how did philosophy lose its way?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It became part of the university. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That removed philosophers from “modern life.”
(I wonder where the philosophy professors live who don’t: pay taxes, have
illnesses, worry for their children, hold political views, fall in and out of
love, get divorced, give to charities, etc. Maybe it’s North Texas.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the good old days, lots of people with
different interests were philosophers, but after the 19<sup>th</sup> century
they all became academics. lost their virtue and their connection with human
concerns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s the story. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unlike the Texas philosophers, I am loathe to defame the
integrity or selflessness of contemporary philosophers. I have met a few really
vile ones, but mostly they have seemed pretty ordinary folk on moral
dimensions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I am not so sure that
philosophers of old were selfless and notably different in integrity from their
contemporaries. It reads to me as if the Texans have been taking The Apology as
the common standard of philosophers before philosophers became professors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was Aristotle, who left a contentious
democracy to educate the mad son of a monarch, selfless?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was Plato, the Athenian aristocrat,
selfless?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moving up, what was selfless
about Leibniz—did he sacrifice himself in some way for others?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Few characters in intellectual history seem
less selfless or charitable than Hobbes and Newton, who saw personally to the
mutilation of coin clippers. Integrity (and courage)? You won’t find it
uncompromised in Locke, who contributed (albeit on tolerance) to the
Fundamental<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Constitution of
Carolina,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an oligarchy ruling over indentured
servants that violated both letter and spirit of Locke’s 2<sup>nd</sup>
treatise—which treatise Locke made sure not to publish while he lived. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are lots of examples of 20<sup>th</sup> century
philosophers who acted with selflessness and integrity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bertrand Russell, who went to prison over his
opposition to World War I; David Malament, who did the same over his opposition
to the Vietnam War; Paul Oppenheim and Carl Hempel, who helped Jews out of Germany
during the Third Reich; Albert Camus, who was part of the French underground.
Philosophers not engaged with modern life? Read Philip Kitcher, read Daniel
Dennett’s more recent works, read just about anything by Peter Singer. Are there no 20<sup>th</sup> century philosophers
who were not professors? Alan Turing was one of the most influential
philosophical writers of the 20<sup>th</sup> century—among other things of
course. He held an academic position only in the last years of his life. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Camus was a journalist. Paul Oppenheim was a
businessman. John von Neumann, who stimulated both the philosophy of quantum
theory and computation, was a mathematician.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Russell spent most of his career outside of the academy. Lawrence
Krauss, a physicist, is a metaphysician as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is true is that as universities spread and secularized,
a lot more people became “philosophers” and a lot of them are very ordinary
people with ordinary minds. The same is true of lots of disciplines I expect,
say physics. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is the author’s remedy? Simple: philosophers should get
out of universities. The authors teach at the University of North Texas.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-64573995817828835422016-01-13T08:18:00.002-08:002016-01-13T08:18:08.029-08:00Causal Decision Theory and Conditioning: a Primer
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Standard Savage decision theory as well as Richard Jeffrey’s
alternative, address a normative problem for an odd doxastic condition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an agent fully believes:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>a set of all of the available, mutually
exclusive actions; </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive
possible states of the world; </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>a set of consequences—outcomes—of each possible
state of the world/action pair.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
and the agent:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Has coherent degrees of belief in the possible
states of the world;</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l3 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Has utilities (or in Jeffrey’s version,
desirabiities) for the outcomes.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The normative question is which action the agent ought to
take. The answer offered is the action, or one of them, that maximizes the
expected utility, where the expectation is with respect to the degrees of
belief in the states of the world.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From an ideal Bayesian perspective, what is essential is the
distinction between actions and outcomes and their costs or values.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ideal Bayesian knows which actions have
the maximal expected utility. The states of the world are gratuitous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Followers of Savage, or Jeffrey’s in effect
assume the agent only obtains the expected utilities by calculating them using
the specified states of the world and probabilities of outcomes, given the
various possible states of the world and actions.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is odd is that no epistemological problem is considered
about how an agent knows, or could know, or rationally assess, the possible
states of the world and their probabilities, the possible actions, or the
probabilities of outcomes effected by alternative actions in the several
possible states of the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a thorough
subjectivist such as Jeffrey would answer these questions: all that is relevant
are the agent’s degrees of belief about actions, states of the world,and
outcomes and their desirabilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Epistemology reduces to observing, Bayesian updating, and rather trivial
computation. Be that as it may, or may not, causal decision theory considers
two kinds of complications.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>The agent believes that the action chosen will
influence the state of the world.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>The agent believes that the state of the world
will influence the action chosen;</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is already a conceptual expansion for the agent, to
include causal relations and probabilities of actions. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In case 1, how should the agent take account of the belief
that the choice of action will be influenced by the state of the world?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For simplicity, first assume the outcome is a
deterministic function of the action, a, and the state, s, of the world, and
the utility is U(o(a, s) where o is some function actions and states.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Proposal 1:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Calculate
the expected utility for each action as the sum over states of the world of the
utility of each action in that state of the world multiplied by the probability
of that state of the world given the action:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Exp(U(a))<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Σ</span></b>s
U(o(a,s)) Prob(s | a)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Savage theory the last factor on the right hand side of
(1) and (2) is just Prob(s)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One “partition question” concerns whether the action that
maximizes utility is the same depending on how the set of states is
“partitioned.” Let S be a variable that ranges over some finite set of values,
s1,…,sn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a coarsening of S is a set S1 =
{{s1 v..v sk}, {sk +1 v …v sm},….{sm v…v sn}}, etc. a refinement is the
inverse. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Coarsening can change the probability of an outcome on an
action. Let S = {s1, s2, s3} and suppose S’ is a coarsening of S to {(s1 v s2),
s3}. For all outcomes o and actions a, let o and a be independent conditional
on s1 and likewise on s2 and s3, but S not be independent of A.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then for any outcome in O:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">P(O | a, (s1 v s2))</i></b> = P(O, | (a,s1 v a,s2) = P (O, a, (s1 v
s2)) / (P(a,s1 v a,s2)) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -13.5pt;">
P((O, a, s1) v<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>P(O, a, s2)) / (P(a,s1 v a,s2)) = </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -13.5pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: -13.5pt;">
P(O, a, s1) + P(O, a, s2) / ((P(a,s1)
+P( a,s2)) =</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
[P(O | a, s1) P(a, s1) + P(O | a, s2)] / ((P(a,s1) +P( a,s2))
=</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
[P(O | s1) P(a, s1) + P(O | s2) P(a, s2)] / ((P(a,s1) +P( a,s2))
=</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(P(a) [P(O | s1) P(s1 | a) + P(O | s2) P(s2 | a)]) / (P(a)(
(P(s1 | a) +P(s2) | a)) =</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">[P(O | s1) P(s1 | a) + P(O | s2) P(s2 | a)] / (P(s1 | a) + P(s2) | a))</i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The probability distribution of 0 given the state s1 v s2 in
S’ varies as the conditional probabilities of s1 and, respectively, of s2 vary
with the value of A they are conditioned on, and O and A are not independent in
S’ but they are independent—by assumption—in S. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For case 2, the results and the argument are similar. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The general point is an old one, Yule’s (on
the mixture of records). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The partitioning problem does not apply to Savage’s
theory—it makes no difference how the range of possible state values are cut up
into new coarsened variables. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So decision theory when the actions influence the states or
the states influence the actions is up in the air—the right decision depends on
the right way to characterize the states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Various writers, Lewis, Skyrms, Woodruff and others, have proposed vague
or ad hoc or infeasible solutions. Lewis proposed to chose the most specific
“causally relevant” partition, which I take to mean the finest partition for
which there is a difference<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in elements
of the partition in the probabilities of outcomes conditional on actions.
Skyrms objects that this is often unknowable, and proposes an intricate set of
alternative conditions, which Woodruff generalizes. The general strategy is to
embed the problem in a logical theory of conditonals, and entwine it with accounts
of “chance”and relations of chance and degrees of belief, e.g., the principal
principle. The general point is hard to extract.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When states influence actions Meek and Glymour propose that
there are two theories. One simply calculates the expected values of the outcomes
on various actions as with Jeffrey’s decision theory, the other assumes that a
decisive act is done with freedom of the will, represented as an exogenous
variable, that breaks the influence of the state on the act.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Appealing as the second story may be to our convictions
about our own acts as we do them, or deliberate on what to do, it is of no
avail when the actions influence the states, not vice-versa. For that case, one
either knows the total effect of an action on the outcome, or one doesn’t, and
if one doesn't, there is nothing for it except to know what the states are that
make a difference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One would think
serious philosophy would have focused then on means to acquire such knowledge.
One would be wrong.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-52525982742162773392014-08-25T07:51:00.000-07:002018-07-06T19:27:10.899-07:00Review of Philosophy of Science, 81, July, 2014<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This issue of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Philosophy
of Science</i> contains some good, some bad, some odd. It gives evidence that
methodology in philosophy of science is pretty much in the doldrums or worse,
while good work is being done producing economic models for various ends.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Brian Skyrms, <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676637?origin=JSTOR-HTMLeTOCAlert">Grades
of Inductive Skepticism</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reject.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is a very brief rehash of some history of probability,
coupled with some remarks on ergodic probabilities, remarks that go nowhere.
The piece seems oddly <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>trivial and
unworthy of its distinguished author.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One has to wonder why it was published—or submitted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hypothesis: The author is eminent and a
colleague of the editors. That sort of thing has happened before in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Philosophy of Science</i>, although not that
I can think of under the current editors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But one of the things colleagues should do for one another is discourage
the publication of stuff that is trivial or bad in other ways.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ben Jantzen, </div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 873px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 434.0pt;" width="868"><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676536?origin=JSTOR-HTMLeTOCAlert"><span style="font-family: "times" , "serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Piecewise versus Total Support: How to Deal with
Background Information in Likelihood Arguments</span></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Accept.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Likelihood has an apparent problem. Suppose you are weighing
hypotheses h1 and h2. You know b. You learn e. Should you compare h1 and h2 by</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
p(e | h1, b) / p(e | h2, b)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>or by p(e, b | h1) / p(e, b | h2)?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Which hypothesis is preferred may not always be the same on
the two comparisons. Jantzen makes the sensible suggestion that which to use
depends on whether you are asking about the extra support e gives to h1 versus
h2 in a context in which b is known, or whether you are asking about the total
support.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jantzen’s point is not subtle,
but the paper is well done and the examples (especially about fishing with nets
with holes too large) are illuminating.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Which reminds me of a deeper problem with likelihood ideas
that seem not to be much explored: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">likelihood
doctrine seems to imply instrumentalism</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Likelihood arguments are used not just to compare hypotheses
but to endorse hypotheses, e.g., via maximum likelihood inference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider two principles:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Hypotheses addressing a body of data should be
preferred according to the likelihood they give to that data.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>A hypothesis should not be endorsed if it is
known that there are other hypotheses that are preferred or indifferent to it
by criterion 1 above, especially not if there is a method to find such
alternatives .</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If the data is finite, the hypothesis just stating the
evidence has maximum likelihood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So some
additional principle is required if likelihood methodology is to yield anything
more than data reports.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The hypothesis space
must somehow be restricted.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Try this:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Only hypotheses that make predictions beyond the
data are to be </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">
considered.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So suppose there are data e1…en and consider some new
experiment or observation e not in the data but for which “serious” hypotheses explaining
e1…en gives some probability to the outcomes. Let the outcomes be binary for
simplicity and so h gives the probability to be is P(e | h).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider the hypotheses:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
e1&…&en & argmax<sub><h,> </sub>(P(e | h)
if argmax<sub><h,> </sub>(P(e | h) > argmax<sub><h,> </sub>(P(~e
| h) ,and e1&…&en & argmax<sub><h,> </sub>(P(~e | h)
otherwise</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This hypothesis meets condition 3 and gives e (or ~e) a
likelihood at least as great as any alternative hypothesis. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ok, try this:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
4. Only hypotheses that make an
infinity of predictions are to be considered.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But the stupid pet trick above can be done infinitely many
times. So try this</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
5. The hypotheses must be finitely
axiomatizable.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still won’t do, as (I
think) an easy adaptation of) the proof in <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/41427286">http://www.jstor.org/stable/41427286</a>
shows.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lina Jansson</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676687"><span style="font-family: "times" , "serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Causal
Theories of Explanation and the Challenge of Explanatory Disagreement</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reject</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Both the thesis and the argument of this paper are either
opaque or weird; it is difficult to see the warrant for publishing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her stalking horses are “causal accounts of
explanation.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On Streven’s account,
causal asymmetry is why X explains Y rather than the other way round—Dan
Hausman had that idea earlier; on Woodward’s account, X causes Y but Y does not
cause X implies that a manipulation of X changes a manipulation of Y, but not
vice versa.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So far as I know, neither of
them claim that all explanations are causal explanations. But a lot of them
are.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Jansson’s argument seems to be as follows:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Leibniz held that Newton’s gravitational theory was not a
causal explanation, because causal explanations require mechanisms and no
mechanism was given for gravitational attraction. She reads Newton as “causally
agnostic” about his laws, which seems to me a very long reach. He was agnostic
(publicly) about the mechanisms that produce the laws, but not that the laws
imply causal regularities: drop a ball and that will, ceteris paribus, cause it
to take up a sequence of positions at times in accordance with the law of gravity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But suppose, for argument, she is right, then
what is the argument?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
She writes: “<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Put simply, the problem of
understanding this debate from a causal explanatory perspective stems from the
reluctance, on both sides, to take there to be a straightforward causal
explanation given by the theory.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, a
sine qua non of a correct account of explanation is that it be able to
“understand the debate. “<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There is this oddity about universal
gravitation and causation. If I drop a ball it causes the ball to fall, the
ball’s falling influences the motion of Mars (instantaneously on Newton’s
theory), and the change in the motion of Mars influences the course of the
ball, also instantaneously. Immediate feedback loop. But Mars influence doesn’t
determine the position of the ball after I drop it, and the position of the
ball after I drop it doesn’t cause my dropping it. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Anyway, her point is different. Here is
the form of the argument.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Accounts S and W say Newtonian
gravitational theory is</span> causal.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Neither the creator of the theory nor its most prominent
critic unequivocally said it was causal.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Therefore accounts S and W are false (or inadequate, or
something).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Parallels. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A: Chemical changes involve the combination or releases of
substances made up of elements.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lavoisier said combustion involves combination with oxygen.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Priestley said combustion involves the release of phlogiston</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Therefore A is false.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The theory of probability specifies measures satisfying
Kolmogoroff’s axioms.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bayesians say probability is opinion.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Frequentists say probability is frequency</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Therefore the theory of probability is false.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Jansson’s “methodology” assumes that concepts of causation
and explanation never change, and that historical figures are always
articulate, and never make errors of judgement in the application of a concept,
and that if some historical figure would only apply a concept under restrictive
circumstances (e.g., no action at a distance), an account of the concept must
agree with that judgement or posit a new concept.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Individuation of concepts is a vague and
arbitrary matter—are there the concept of causality, Leibniz’s concept of
causality, Newton’s concept of causality, etc.?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>On her view, so far as I can see, for every sentence about causal
relations, general or specific, about which some scientists sometime have
disagreed, two new concepts will be needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Not much to be learned from that.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Robert Batterman and Colin Rice</div>
<div class="textindent">
<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676677?origin=JSTOR-HTMLeTOCAlert">Minimal
Models</a></div>
<div class="textindent">
<span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Revise and
resubmit</span></div>
<div class="textindent">
<span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Another
essay on explanation (will philosophers of science <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ever</i> let up on this) whose exact point is difficult to identify.</span></div>
<div class="textindent">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"We
have argued that there is a class of explanatory models that are explanatory
for reasons that have largely been ignored in the literature. These reasons
involve telling a story that is focused on demonstrating why details do not
matter. Unlike mechanist, causal, or difference-making accounts, this story
does not require minimally accurate mirroring of model and target system.</span></div>
<div class="textindent">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">We
call these explanations <i>minimal model explanations</i> and have given a
detailed account of two examples from physics and biology. Indeed, minimal
model explanations are likely common in many scientific disciplines, given that
we are often interested in explaining macroscale patterns that range over
extremely diverse systems. In such instances, a minimal model explanation will
often provide the deeper understanding we are after. Furthermore, the account
provided here shows us why scientists are able to use models that are only
caricatures to explain the behavior of real systems."</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
The idea seems to be that there are theories that find
features and relations among them that entail phenomenological regularities, no
matter the rest of the features of a system, and no matter whether the features
in question are exactly exemplified in a system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are two examples, one from fluid
dynamics, the other Fisher’s opaque explanation of the 1:1 sex ratio in many
species based on the equal effort required to raise males or female offspring,
but the differential average reproductive return to raising males if females
are in excess or raising females if males are in excess.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t understand the fluid dynamics model,
and Fisher’s requires a lot of extra assumptions and ceteris paribus clauses to
go through, (grant the equal cost of rearing male and female offspring but
imagine that one male can fertilize many females and there is a predator that
prefers males exclusively) but never mind.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What I don’t understand about this paper is why most
theories in the physical sciences don’t satisfy B and C’s criteria for a
minimal model. Thermodynamics? The details of the molecular constitution of a
system are largely ignored. Relativity? It doesn’t matter whether the system is
made of wood or iron, the Lorentz tranformations still hold; it doesn’t matter
how the light is generated, its velocity is still the same. Newtonian celestial
mechanics? Doesn’t matter that Jupiter is made of gas, Mercury of rock, and
Pluto of ice, still the same planetary motions. Even theories that probe into
the internal structure of a system are minimal with respect to some other
theories. Dalton appealed only to masses of elemental particles—that, and a few
assumptions yields the law of definite proportions. Berzelius added electrical
forces between atoms, which were gratuitous for deriving definite proportions. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is not clear in this paper is how B & C intend to
distinguish between minimal models and almost every theory that shows a set of
features, individual or aggregate, or approximations to such features, and
related laws, of a kind of system suffice for phenomenological relations. That
is what physical theories generally do. Their fluid flow example almost
suggests that all that is required is an algorithm that generates the phenomena
from (perhaps) measurable features a system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>So, considering that example, the authors might have asked: when is an
algorithm for generating the phenomena an explanation of the phenomena? They
did not.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h2>
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dean Peters</span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676537?origin=JSTOR-HTMLeTOCAlert"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What Elements of Successful Scientific
Theories Are the Correct Targets for “Selective” Scientific Realism?</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Revise and resubmit</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Peters’ essay is useful in two
respects. First, it treats the question in the title as turning on this: what
parts of the data confirm what parts of a theory? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That adds a little structure to the
philosophical discussions of realism. And, second, it provides a succinct
critical review of bad proposals to answer the question. Peters’ has his own
answer, which is not obviously useful. Here it is:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“So, to pick out the essential elements
of the theory under the ESSA, start with a subtheory consisting of statements
of its most basic confirmed empirical consequences or perhaps its confirmed
phenomenological laws. These, after all, are the parts of a theory that even
empiricists agree we should be “realists” about. Further propositions are added
to this subtheory by a recursive procedure. Consider any theoretical posit not
in the subtheory. If it entails more propositions in the subtheory than are
required to construct it, tag it as confirmed under the unification criterion,
and so add it to the subtheory. Otherwise, leave it out. When there are no more
theoretical posits to consider in this way, the subtheory contains the
essential elements of the original theory.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The proposal as
developed is insubstantial: “<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Consider any theoretical posit not in
the subtheory. If it entails more propositions in the subtheory than are
required to construct it” – what does “required to construct it” mean?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In criticizing other proposals, Peters
appeals to logical consequences, and proceeds with a distinguished set of
“posits”—i.e., axioms.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hold him to the
same standard. Theories can be axiomatized in an infinity of ways. We need an
account of the invariance of the result of the procedure—whatever it is—over
different axiomatizations, or an account of “natural axiomatizations” and
warrant for using them exclusively. The work of Ken Gemes and Gerhard Schurz is
relevant here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So it seems to me that
Peters has an idea—conceivably ultimately a good idea—that he did not do the
work to make good on. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Roger DeLanghe</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/full/10.1086/676670#fn0">A
unified model of the division of cognitive labor</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Accept</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is a very nice essay providing a simple economic model
in which there are balancing incentives for scientists to adopt and contribute
to an existing theory or to propose a new one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Lots that might be done to expand the picture for more realism, and it
would be nice if those pursuing Kitcher’s original idea assembled some relevant
data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Marius Stan</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unity for Kant’s Natural Philosophy</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I have no opinion about this essay, which is on how Kant
might have sought, although he did not, synthetic a priori grounds for Euler’s
torque law. Nor do I see why anyone should care. Clearly, some do.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Carlos Santana</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676652?origin=JSTOR-HTMLeTOCAlert#fn20">Ambiguity
in Cooperative Signaling</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Accept</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This well argued and lucid essay shows that there is a model
in which agents with ambiguous signaling (under replicator dynamics) invade a
population of unambiguous signalers, but not vice-versa. Despite the
considerable empirical evidence the author (a graduate student at Penn) gives
for the insufficiency of other explanations of the frequency of ambiguity in
human and animal communication, I am worried by the following thought. The
evolution of language—or at least signaling-- we expect to have gone from the
very ambiguous to the more precise. That is what syntactic structure and an
expanded lexicon afford. So if signaling by ambiguous strategies cannot be
invaded by signaling by “standard” (i.e., perfectly precise) strategies, how
did more precise, if still ambiguous in some respects, signaling systems
evolve?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It strikes me that the author
may have proved the wrong result.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-40874210152583416512014-08-16T11:52:00.003-07:002018-06-29T21:17:23.620-07:00The Fortress of Metaethics: Reviews of Thomas Scanlon, What We Owe to Each Other and Being Realistic about Reasons. <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Metaethics is about what ethical claims mean, how they can
be “justified,” and how ethical reasoning ought to be conducted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thomas Scanlon’s writing on metaethics has
become a verbal icon for the enterprise. Scanlon now has two books elaborating
his views, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What We Owe to Each Other</i>
and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Being Realistic about Reasons</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first was reviewed with applause in
literary venues where philosophy is seldom seen, and one can only expect the
same of the second. Each book is a theoretical disappointment—no, the second is
a disaster--the first from lacunae the second tries to fill, the second from
the filling.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3388106825903092294#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a></div>
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In <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What We Owe to Each
Other </i>Scanlon’s stalking horse is utilitarianism. The many variants of
utilitarianism share this much: they are voting theories, and so is Scanlon’s
alternative, absent some key features. In utilitarianism, every sentient creature,
or at least every human, has a stock of interests. Properly scaled, those are
voting stocks. Anyone’s action predictably affects some of the interests, or the
well-being, of some creatures. An action is permissible only if, among the
alternative available actions, it maximizes some aggregate of the interests of all
who may be affected by any of the available actions, so far as the actor can
estimate. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is the utilitarian schematic
for how the affected stocks are to be weighed in moral assessment of action. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The specifics are contentious. How are pains
and pleasures and sorrows and joys to be compared across persons, let alone
persons and other animals, so that they can be aggregated?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That issue aside, suppose we have a number for
each human state or well or mal being that takes account the diverse interests
of each human being. Should one try to maximize the total, the average, the
median well-being over all persons? Minimize the variance? Maximize something
under a constraint (e.g., a bound on the variance, or the Difference
Principle)? Count only changes to an individual’s interests that are above a
certain threshold?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Order interests by
type, higher type trumping lower, as one might read Mill to suggest? The
utilitarian literature from Bentham on has this virtue: it takes these
questions seriously and offers answers, not the same answers, of course. These
are philosophers after all.</div>
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Scanlon’s theory is one piece of a different voting
theory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For any action one might do, the
deliberator and others may have reasons, conscious or not, why it should or
should not be done. The best of those reasons is decisive. Reasons are not to
be aggregated; the best reason wins, no matter how few people have it. Which
reasons count? Scanlon offers only this in general: <span style="background: white; color: black;">We should seek to act only in accord with principles that
other people could not reasonably reject if they too sought principles others
could not reasonably reject.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A reason
has moral bearing only if it is an application of such a principle.</span></div>
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One catch to Scanlon’s general schema for moral principles is
“reasonably,” which in this context is particularly flabby. We have pretty
clear notions of reasonable views in mathematics, less definite notions in
science, but in ethics “unreasonable” is more a slur than a methodological
complaint. Does Scanlon imagine a negotiation about which principles meet his
criteria, or a social survey to find nearly universal principles (they would be
few), or does he imagine principles that someone sincerely thinks others ought
to share? In the latter case, utilitarian principles have a vote. No one thinks
that the only reasons I can have for or against an action must be exclusively
about me. Indeed, if by the proper weighting of principles and reasons
utilitarian principles and reasons are the best, then Scanlon is committed to
utilitarianism, one step back. </div>
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So what then are the principles of ordering of reasons or
principles, and why? Scanlon does not say, only, examples aside, that the best
reason wins, winner take all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What then individuates
reasons: if your action will impoverish me and cause me an illness besides, is
that one reason or two? Scanlon doesn’t say, but in his voting scheme it
matters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The basic elements of the
theory are unspecified: by what clear principles are reasons to be weighed, and
why, what counts as a reason, how are reasons individuated? Almost all you
might want in a theory is unspecified. One would not want election rules so
vaguely posted.</div>
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The book has any number of appeals to quotidian examples
where one would not consider global consequences, or global good, or aggregate harms
and benefits. There are old saws: If a broadcasting engineer is painfully and
continuously injured by continuing shock during the broadcast of a sports
game—say Argentina versus Germany in the World Cup--and the only way to stop
his agony is to interrupt the electric current that is necessary to broadcast
the game, shouldn’t that be done—aren’t the enormous sum of annoyances to the
passions of millions of soccer fans outweighed by the one engineer’s acute
pain?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But what would be said in this
kind of case by versions of utilitarianism in which what counts has thresholds,
or versions in which there are layers of goods and bads that trump others?
Should we not consider the number of people who might be killed in mad rages
and riots were the television to go off in the midst of the game? In any case
these examples can be bought cheap by either side. Being murdered is worse than
not having children. If you met a person with a remarkably infectious,
uncurable disease that renders all who catch it permanently sterile but is
otherwise asymptomatic, and you could not capture him and isolate him before he
spread it to the entire human population, would you kill him if you could? </div>
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If the aim is to articulate standards for correct norms, why
trifle with mundane examples, unless one is doing moral sociology from an
armchair? That question takes us to Scanlon’s more recent book, a defense of putting
weight on such examples, and, more broadly, a defense of metaethics as a
serious enterprise. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scanlon does not
fill all the gaps his first book left, but he addresses two major ones. The
claims of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Being Realistic about Reasons</i>
come down to these: there are true normative principles that are not just about
the best means to ends, and there is a method for discovering them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is the argument?</div>
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Scanlon claims that there are various “domains” of inquiry.
Each domain has its own standards for seeking the truth in its domain.
Mathematics has its methods, empirical science has its methods, and, lo,
normative matters, moral matters in particular, have theirs. One domain may not
contradict, or, presumably, undermine, the methods and conclusions of
another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are separate empires, contractually
at peace. This last I call Scanlon’s Rule. He continues with implausible
parallels between set theory (Scanlon was a logician in his youth) and
normative reasoning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just as set
theorists may debate and disagree about, say, Zorn’s Lemma, so metaethicists
may debate and disagree fine points of the correct normative principles. Can
one seriously think that the reasoning in ethics and metaethics has the rigor
of mathematics? I can’t, and I doubt Scanlon does. Scanlon’s thesis is that
they share the same style, the same form viewed with sufficient abstraction. So,
with sufficient abstraction, do science and Cargo Cults. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The intellectual legitimacy of metaethics
needs a better bolster.</div>
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The crucial point is Scanlon’s Rule. Scanlon’s Rule is pure
defense, a paper wall to keep out critics. Mathematics and logic may be immune
to contradiction from physics (although Hilary Putnam once thought otherwise,
and presumably Mill would have allowed the possibility, and certainly the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">status</i> of geometry has been altered by
physics—and the status of metaethics is what is at stake here), but ethics is
not immune to contradiction from other “domains.” Is religion a domain?
Theological reasoning is more like metaethics than is set theory, and theology
most definitely intrudes on ethics and on metaethics. Empirical science may not
directly contradict normative claims, but it can surely undermine them. Once
upon a time it was widely thought that there are particularly evil people,
sorcerers and witches, who had made contracts with the most evil entity, Satan,
and should be killed. Science has convinced the civilized that there are no
witches and no sorcerers and no Satan. Once upon a time, it was thought that
living beings have a superphysical constitution, that their chemicals are not
the ordinary, “inorganic” stuff, and that living beings possess an unphysical
“vital force” that guides evolution. Science has convinced us (Tom Nagel
perhaps aside) otherwise. Science bids fair to do the same with the Will, and
Autonomy, and Agency, and as, and if that more fully comes about, the idea of
true, moral principles will go the way of true principles of witchcraft.</div>
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So what about the methods of ethics? Scanlon’s is “reflective
equilibrium,” I think first proposed in Rawl’s essay “Outline of a decision
procedure for ethics.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rawls imagined a
panel of moral experts (much of his essay is about the qualifications for
membership) who report on the moral statuses of sundry actions. The ethical
theorist takes their pronouncements as data—putative moral facts—and attempts
to form a general theory that accounts for them. Rawls allowed that on
reflection one might reject a few of the experts’ decisions if accounting for
them required excessive complexity in the theory, arbitrary exceptions and so
on. The procedure came to be called “reflective equilibrium.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is Scanlon’s method, with the panel of
experts replaced by one’s own judgements and the judgements of those whose
ethical perspicuity one respects. His explanation of the reliability of its data
sounds very much like Descartes “clear and distinct ideas”:</div>
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“In order for something to count as a considered judgment…
It is necessary also that it should be something that seems to me to be clearly
true <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">when I am thinking about the matter
under good conditions for arriving at judgments of the kind in question</i>.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scanlon, T. M. (2014-01-06). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Being Realistic about Reasons</i> (p. 82).
Oxford University Press, USA. Kindle Edition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(Italics are Scanlon’s)</div>
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I have no doubt that some very thoughtful people, no doubt
Scanlon himself, form their moral views in this way. I even think it’s a good
way. But I have no doubt, either, that in many other “domains” something
similar is often followed. It is general and vague enough to characterize both the
process of Islamic jurisprudence and the quasi Bayesian process often at work
in science in which data are thought to come with probabilities of error and
the sufficiently low posterior of a datum conditional on a hypothesis of
sufficiently high probability is reason to reject the datum, or even to reject
an entire set of measurements. But these examples are exactly the problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Bayesian statistics one can prove that
under specified, general assumptions, application of Bayes rule converges to
the truth. One can do the same for modifications, perhaps even considered
variants of the one I suggest off-hand above. In statistical estimation and machine
learning (the latter of which Rawls, in keeping with the opinion of his time,
announced was impossible) proofs are given that under very general assumptions
search methods converge on the truth, and methods are provided for testing the
assumptions. Nothing like that can be done for Islamic jurisprudence, and
nothing like that can be done for Rawl’s decision procedure for ethics or
Scanlon’s variant. That one can apply a vaguely specified procedure in a domain
is no argument, no evidence, that the procedure finds the truth in that domain,
or that there is any truth there to be found. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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The least attention to the world shows that the range of
considered moral judgements is incompatible with any unified theory of
morality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scanlon will have to discard
many of the moral judgements of most people in the world. He should, but he
should not claim that in doing so he is exercising a method for finding truth.
Scanlon has only two responses. Those who want to (and do) crucify Christians
and behead Jewish journalists and do other atrocities are not in “good
conditions” for such judgements; <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and that
ethics and metaethics have their own standards for concluding what is true--outside
standards and alien practices, however common, are irrelevant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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There is plenty of work for metaethics to do: systematizing vague
strategies of inference—Nozick’s efforts were a good start<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3388106825903092294#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[i]</span></span></span></span></a>--finding
and recognizing contradictions, figuring out how principles apply in morally
difficult cases, contrasting misweighings of moral importance, finding
agreements and disagreements in clarified moral perspectives, tempering ethical
demands to human capacities, and so on, all without Scanlon’s truth claims. Scanlon’s
redoubt is a parochial fortress, impenetrable to the forces of science or to the
objections of the world outside and its domains.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3388106825903092294#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> I
write this and what follows with some regret, since Scanlon was my closest
friend when we were colleagues. This blog may lose me a lot of friends. </div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="mso-element: endnote-list;">
<br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="edn1" style="mso-element: endnote;">
<div class="MsoEndnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3388106825903092294#_ednref1" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">[i]</span></span></span></span></a>
Nozick, Robert, "Moral Complications and Moral Structures" (1968). <em><span style="font-family: "cambria" , "serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Natural Law Forum.</span></em> Paper 137.<br />
http://scholarship.law.nd.edu/nd_naturallaw_forum/137</div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14935674420674239589noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3388106825903092294.post-50549640244736168252014-08-11T11:46:00.000-07:002018-06-29T20:33:31.272-07:00Low Bars: Reviews of Four Semi-Recent Books in Philosophy of Science<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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I take a dyspeptic look at four recent books, one of which,
Kyle Stanford’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Exceeding Our Grasp</i>,
has previously been reviewed with praise in several places. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And now, a second, Paul Churchland’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Plato’s Camera</i>, reviewed with praise in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mind and Machines.</i>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Paul<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Churchland, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Plato’s Camera</i>, MIT Press, 2012</b></div>
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As his title indicates, Paul Churchland is a man of big
metaphors. He is a man of big ambitions as well, not for himself but for his
theory. He thinks that that neuroscience will provide—and is well on the way to
providing --a complete logic and philosophy of science. Academic philosophers
have missed the boat, or the bandwagon, whichever metaphor you prefer. Neuroscience
provides “a competing conception of cognitive activity, an alternative to the
“sentential” or “propositional attitude” model that has dominated philosophy
for the past 2,500 years.” (14) “these spaces [of synaptic weights and patterns
of neural activation] specify a set of ‘nomically possible worlds…these spaces
hold the key to a novel account of both the semantics and the epistemology of
modal statements, and of counterfactual and subjective conditionals.” (18). “Notably,
and despite its primacy, that synapse-adjusting space-shaping process is almost
wholly ignored by the traditions of academic epistemology, even into these
early years of our third millennium.” (13)</div>
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A little potted history will put Churchland’s book in
context. The great philosophers joined theories of mind with theories of method
for acquiring true beliefs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For Leibniz
and Hobbes and even Hume, logic was the algebra by which the mind constructs
complex concepts, or ideas, from simpler ones. George Boole realized that whatever
the laws of thought may be, they are not in necessary agreement with the laws
of logic. People make errors, and some people make them systematically. Logic,
semantics, causality, probability have their relations, the mind has its
relations, and the twain shall sometimes, but not always, meet. </div>
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Sparked by Ramon y Cahal’s discovery of the axon-dendrite
structure of neural connections, suggesting that the nerve cell is an
information processing unit and the synaptic connection is a channel, in the
last quarter of the 19<sup>th</sup> century avante-garde speculation turned to
how the distribution of “excitation” and its transfer among cells might produce
consciousness, thought and emotion. Connectionist neuropsychology was born in
the writings of Cahal, Sigmund Exner and, yes, Sigmund Freud. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Exner, like Freud, was as an assistant to the
materialist physiologist Ernst von Brucke, and Freud’s neuropsychological speculations
from1895 elaborate (one might say exaggerate) lines suggested in Exner’s 1891 <i>Entwurf
zu einer physiologischen Erklärung der psychischen Erscheinungen</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">, both inspired in a general way by Hermann
von Helmholtz, with whom Freud once proposed to study<i>. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Freud’s <i>Entwurf einer Psychologie</i>—still
in print in English translation as<i> Project for a Scientific Psychology</i>--the
neurons are activated by stimuli from the sense organs, or by chemical sources internal
to the body. Neurons pass activation to those they are connected with in the
face of some resistance, which is reduced by consecutive passage (an idea now
called, with historical injustice, the “Hebb synapse”) and eventually produce a
motor response. Depending on the internal and external stimuli that result from
motion, a feedback process occurs which eventuates in a semi-stable collection
of facilitations among nerve cells that constitute our general knowledge of the
world—what Freud called the “reality principle.” The particular neural
activations of memory and momentary experience occur within those learned
constraints captured by the facilitations. Logic, the subject–predicate logic
Freud had learned from Franz Brentano–is at once created (as thought) and
realized (as model) by the synaptic connections.</span></div>
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That is pretty much Churchland’s theory. There are modern
twists, of course—Cajal and Exner and Freud had no computers with which to do
simulations or make analogies, and they had a different data set—and Churchland
has all sorts of terminological elaborations. But, other than a review of
connectionist computing and some modern neurobiology, and of course a host of
new metaphors—“sculpting the space” of activation connections and so on, what
is new in Churchland’s book? What he says: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“a novel account of both the semantics and the
epistemology of modal statements, and of counterfactual and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>subjunctive conditionals” as well as a novel
account of synonymy and an explanation of scientific discovery and
intertheoretical reduction and more. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
sum, Churchland shares the aim of the Great Philosophers to produce a unified
account of mind, meaning and method, but this time founded on the neuroscience of
neural processes rather than on Hume’s introspective science of impressions and
ideas or Kant’s a priori concepts.</div>
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Historians and philosophers of science have written reams
about how Darwin came to the view that species formed and evolved by spontaneous
variation and natural selection, what knowledge and arguments and hypotheses he
had available when he embarked on the voyage of the Beagle, what he was
convinced of by what he saw in those passages, what the collections and notes
with which he returned taught him, what influences his subsequent reading and
conversation and correspondence bore. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Churchland’s explanation of Darwin’s discovery</div>
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can be Bowdlerized but not summarized:</div>
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“The causal origins of Darvin’s explanatory epiphany resided
in the pecular modulations, of his normal perceptual and imaginative processes,
induced by the novel contextual information brought to those processes via his
descending or recurrent axonal pathways…A purely feed forward network, once its
synaptic weights have been fixed, is doomed to respond to the same sensory
inputs with unchanging and uniquely appropriate cognitive outputs…A trained
network with a recurrent architecture, by contrast, is entirely capable of
responding to one and the same sensory input in a variety of very different
ways..As those states meander, they provide an ever changing cognitive context
into which the same sensory subject-matter, on different occasions, is
constrained to arrive. Mostly, those contextual variations make only a small
and local difference in the brain’s subsequent processing of that repeated sensory
input. But occasionally they can make a large and lasting difference. Once
Darwin had seen the now-famous diversity of finch-types specific to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">environmentally </i>diverse<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>Galapagos Islands as being historically
and causally analogous to the diversity of dog-types specific to the
selectionally diverse dog-breeding kennels of Europe, he would never see or
think of the overall diversity of biological forms in quite the same way again.
And what gave Darwin’s conceptual reinterpretation here the lasting impact that
it had on him was precisely the extraordinary explanatory power that it
provided…The Platonic camera that was Darwin’s brain had redeployed one of its
existing ‘cognitive lenses’ so as to provide a systematically novel mode of
conceptualization where issues of biological history were concerned.”
(191-200).</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A lot has gone wrong
here. How the output (the realization of explanatory power) “sculpts the space”
of neural connectivities anew is unexplained. The “recurrent neural network”
and “descending axonal pathways” stuff has nothing to do specifically with
Darwin. It could as well be said of the epiphanies of Newton or Einstein or the
fantasies of Erich van Dalen. When Churchland wants actually to engage Darwin,
he has to step out of the neurological generalities and into the actual
history, and he has to appeal to a notion, “extraordinary explanatory power”
taken from old-fashioned philosophy of science. And that is because he knows
nothing specific about what neural processes took place in Darwin, and nothing
about what neural processes constitute the realization of explanatory power, or
what about the neural processes themselves distinguishes genius from crank from
paranoid. He is not to blame for that, but it shows the impotence of his
framework for elucidating much of anything about scientific discovery, let
alone for providing guidance to it. </div>
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It is the same everywhere with Churchland. He is not to be
faulted for want of theoretical ambition. Take the question of inter-theoretic
reduction. After whipping off criticisms—the quality of which I have not space
to pursue--of various accounts, Churchland offers this:</div>
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“A more general framework, G, successfully reduces a
distinct target framework, T, if and only if the conceptual map G, or some part
of it, subsumes the conceptual map T, at least roughly… More specifically</div>
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(a) the high-dimensional configuration of
prototype-positions and prototype-trajectories with in the sculpted
neuronal-activation space that constitutes T (a conceptual map of some abstract
feature-domain) is (b) roughly homomorphic with</div>
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(c) some substructure or lower-dimensional projection of the
high dimensional configuation of prototype-positions and proto-type
trajectories within the sculpted neuronal activation space that constitues G (a
conceptual map of some more extensive abstract feature-domain.)” (210-211).</div>
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Good. Now does statistical mechanics reduce thermodynamics?
Does quantum theory reduce classical mechanics? Or what? Consult prototype
positions in sculpted neuronal activation space. I will skip the details of Churchland’s
account of “homorphisms between sub-structures of configurations of
prototype-positions and proto-type trajectories.” Suffice that is an ill-defined
attempt at a little mathematics, so odd as perhaps to have been whimsical.</div>
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<span class="reference-text">About meaning relations, the
general idea seems to be that one thinks counterfactually or hypothetically by
activating patterns that are neither sensory responses nor exact reproductions
of previous activation patterns—not memories, which, less the ‘activiation
patterns’ is precisely Hume’s account. Nothing particular is established, and
we are left to wonder what constraints on our meandering activations incline us
to think that if, necessarily if p then q, then if necessarily p then
necessarily q. What distinguishes the hypothetical from the counterfactual, the
entertained from the believed, the supposition from the plan, the wish from the
fear from the doubt from the conviction--is unexplained, and it seems doubtful
that Churchland can do better than Hume on imagination. </span></div>
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<span class="reference-text">When it comes down to it, Churchland
does not want to explain propositional attitudes, he wants to do away with
them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some reasons are given in his
argument against one propositional attitude, the analysis of knowledge as true,
justified belief. He notes the usual Gettier problems but that is not what
bothers him. We, and infants and animals, have he says, a-linguistic knowledge.
Beliefs are attitudes to propositions and truth is a property of sentences, so
to attribute them to much of what we know and other animals know is a category
mistake. And so, for much of what is known but is not, or cannot, be said,
justification is impossible and to ask for it is likewise a kind of category
error. </span></div>
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There is something to this, but only a little. There is
implicit knowledge, exhibited in capacities, which someone can have and yet
have no awareness of, no thought of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
psychologist evoking the capacity can generally state what her subject
implicitly knows. She may even claim to know in a general way how the subject
came to know it, and so find it justified and true. Whether such implicit
knowledge is a belief of the knower is the hard question. Churchland would I
think say not; Freud, who lived on the premise of unconscious beliefs, would
have had no trouble allowing it. We have thoughts we never formulate in
language—we can think we see a familiar face in a crowd and automatically look
again, testing the thought before it takes, even to ourselves, a linguistic
form. Evidence of a-linguistic thought is all around anyone who lives with dogs
or cats or even a closely watched cow. But I do not see why such thoughts cannot
be believed or had with surprise or fear by those entities that have them, why
they cannot be the objects of the very attitudes that philosophers call
propositional. There is generally a proposition that approximately expresses
them even if their possessor cannot formulate it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However this may be, it remains that our
thoughts are not on a par. There is a difference between formulating a plan, an
intention, and entertaining a possibility, and Churchland’s framework has no
place for it. Perhaps one could be made, but for that one would have to want to
allow something very much like propositional attitudes.</div>
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On technical points, the book is a mixture. Lots of things
are explained vividly and correctly, some not so much.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, recurrent networks have a
problem with long term memory. A class of algorithms Churchland does not
discuss, Long Short Term Memory (<span class="reference-text">S. Hochreiter<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and J. Schmidhuber. Long short-term memory. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Neural Computation</i>, 9(8):1735–1780,
1997) do better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is a bit weak on
biology. Churchland dismisses innateness hypotheses on the grounds that genes
would have to specify synaptic connections, and there are billions of those and
only 30,000 or so genes. He forgets (I know he forgets, because once I told
him) that a person’s liver cells and neurons have the same genes but very
different forms and functions--cellular form, function and location involve
gene expression, and it isn’t just one gene-one expression, one protein, one
synaptic connection. The combinatorics are enormous. He writes metaphorically
of “sculpting activation space” but fails to note that nerve connections are
physically pruned—literally destroyed--from infancy to maturity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remarkably, the book entirely ignores the
growing neuropsychological research on predicting an agent’s environment from
indirect measurements of brain physiology—the very work that comes closest to
realizing Churchland’s vision.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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The real problem with Churchland’s book is too long an arm,
a lengthy overreach. One can grant the general Cajal-Exner-Freud connectionist
framework. It provides a theoretical position from which to do research and
that research is prospering. A few professional philosophers have contributed,
Stephen Quartz for example with fMRI experiments, and Joseph Ramsey with
improvements in fMRI methodology. But decorating the framing assumptions of
scientific research in neuroscience with metaphors, accounts of computer
simulations, and vacuous applications neither helps with our problems in
philosophy of science nor contributes to methods for effectively carrying out
that research. </div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>P. Kyle Stanford, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Exceeding Our Grasp</i>, Oxford University Press, 2012</div>
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Banality, Nelson Goodman once said, is the price of success
in philosophy. Here is a banality: One cannot think of everything, and if a
truth is something one cannot think of, then one will not believe that truth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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That is the fundamental substance of Stanford’s thesis,
elaborated with brief discussions of some of the philosophy of science
literature on theoretical equivalence, underdetermination, and confirmation,
and with a more extended discussion of examples in the history of science. More
elaborately, the thesis is that historical scientists did not, and could not,
think of the alternatives to their theories that later explained their evidence
in different ways; so, too, our contemporaies are unable to think of such
alternatives that may lurk in Plato’s heaven. Hence we should not believe our
current theories. The conclusion does not follow. Perhaps one <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ought</i> to believe, of the hypotheses one
can conceive and analyze, those best supported by current evidence. The general
agnostic will never believe the truth; those who believe on their best evidence
and available conceptions at least have a shot. Even so little strategic <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>reflection is not to be found in Stanford’s
essay.</div>
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Much of Stanford’s philosophical argument is negative: there
are no general characterizations of theoretical equivalence even assuming a
definite space of possible data; there are no general theories of what parts of
a theory are confirmed by what data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One
could apply his argument reflexively: there may be possible characterizations
of such relations that have not been thought of, in which case perhaps we
should be agnostic about being agnostic about our theories. I don’t know if
agnosticism is transitive. The rest of his argument consists of historical
discussions about what various scientists thought that turned out to be wrong,
for example what they thought were the indisputable parts of their theories. Here
the absence of any normative theory in the book collides with the historical
exegesis: why should we think that various historical figures, Maxwell, for
example, were right about what they thought were the indubitable, or best
confirmed, aspects of their theories?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>More than that, Stanford’s histories neglect historical stability. Two
centuries later, the atomic weight of oxygen is still greater than the atomic
weight of hydrogen.</div>
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Logic is also neglected in Stanford’s effort to make novelty
out of banality. Stanford’s discussion of Craig’s theorem, for example, is odd.
He takes it as establishing that a theory has a perfectly observationally
equivalent instrumentalist ghost, and of no further significance for
theoretical equivalence. But what the theorem establishes is that if there is a
recursively enumerable linguistic characterization of the possible data for a
theory, then there is an infinity of theories that entail the same possible
data. Under mild assumptions, there is an infinity of finitely axiomatizable,
logically inequivalent such theories, and there is no logically weakest finitely
presentable theory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Some years ago I attended lectures by a prominent
philosopher and by the late Allen Newell. The prominent philosopher went on for
two lectures to the effect that some features of cognition are “hard wired” and
others not. Having enough of this, Newell asked what the philosopher’s
laboratory had discovered about which cognitive features are “hard-wired.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Flustered, the philosopher appealed to “division
of labor” between philosophy and psychology. To which Newell observed privately
that if that was the philosophers’ labor, psychologists could do it themselves,
thank you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there is the trouble with
Stanford’s book. It is a lazy effort. If there are theories we cannot think of,
or have not thought of, in some domain, and surely in many domains there are a
great many, by all means help us find ways to survey and assess them. That is
what machine learning is about. Stanford has nothing to say. If we need a
reliable means to assign credit or blame among the many claims entailed by a
theory, seek for one. Stanford has nothing to say. The main thing he has to say
you knew before opening his book.</div>
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Sandra Mitchell, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Unsimple
Truths</i>, University of Chicago Press, 2012</div>
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Sandara Mitchell’s book is more shadow than smoke. Try to
catch some definite, original content is like grasping a shadow, but the shadow
is always there, moving with your grasp. Mitchell rightly observes that
contemporary science proceeds across different “levels,” that many relations
are not additive (she says not “linear”), that many phenomena, especially biological
and social phenomena, have multiple causes, and that much of contemporary
science is addressed to finding regularities that are contingent, or
impermanent, or not general (she doesn’t distinguish these) . One wonders for
whom this is news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one I know. No
doubt she gets around more. </div>
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She argues for “emergence” rather than “reduction” and proclaims
a “new epistemology”: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">integrated
pluralism</i>. One might hope that this is the definite, original part, but it
turns out not to be so.</div>
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Epistemology comes in two phases: analyses: “S knows that P”
and such; and method: how S can come to know that P, and such.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no concrete thought in this book on
either score that is helpful, either to philosophy or to science. Modern
systems biology and neuropsychology have lots of problems about “high
dimensional, low-sample size” data. She has nothing to offer. Social
epidemiology has a hoard of problems about measurement, sampling and
statistical inference. She has nothing to offer. Cancer has complex interactive
causes hard to establish, and so do lots of social and cognitive phenomena. She
observes that there are problems, but has nothing helpful to offer. </div>
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Mitchell’s <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>discussion
of emergence and reduction is a bit bewildering. On the one hand, she allows
that no one seriously thinks we are actually going to deduce social patterns
from facts about fundamental particles—and if some should try, let them go to
it but don’t pay them. So there is no methodological issue, only a metaphysical
one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, she does not
dispute that, at the basis of nature, it’s physics. She isn’t arguing for any
transcendent powers. So what’s left? Apparently only this: one language can’t
express everything, so no language for physics can express everything.
Something will be left out. She offers no candidates for the omitted, but
suppose she were right. Suppose for any physical theory there are aspects of
the physical world that theory does not capture—not even logically, let alone
practically. Proving, rather than merely asserting, as much would be an
impressive achievement merely as a theoretical exercise, but what’s the point
for “integrative pluralism”? I see no implication whatever for the conduct of
science. Whether we think there is a theory of everything is possible or not,
the scientific community will still measure the large and the small, try to
separate phenomena into multiple aspects, look for mechanisms and try to
separate their components, suffer with interaction, with the limits of
predictability, computational complexity and the rest. Makes no difference to any
of it whether the language of physics is finally complete or finally completable.
</div>
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To judge from the blurb on the book jacket, scientists may
like reading this stuff, but if so that can only be because it is an aid to their
vanity, not to their science.</div>
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Bill Harper, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Isaac
Newton’s Scientific Method</i>, Oxford University Press, 2012.</div>
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Much of this book is about another, Books I and III of the
Principia. Harper details, almost lovingly, the theorems from Book I and how
they are used in the argument for universal gravitation in Book III, and on
that account the book is worth reading—with a copy of the Principia to
hand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the question of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Harper’s book is : <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What was Newton’s method? </i>It was more than theorems.</div>
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Any reader of the first pages of Book III should get the
general idea of Newton’s argument. Starting with Kepler’s laws and using
theorems of Book I that are consequences of the three laws of motion, Newton
proves that for each primary in the solar system with a satellite, there <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">exists</i> an inverse square force
attracting the satellite to its primary. He then shows that the motion of the
moon can be approximately accounted for the combination of two such forces, one
directed to the sun and one directed to the Earth. He then engages in a hypothetical,
or suppositional exercise, counting the acceleration the moon would have at the
surface of the Earth. Using experiments with pendulums, he shows that the
acceleration of the bob is independent of the mass and equals the suppositional
acceleration of the moon at the Earth’s surface, and infers that the
acceleration produced in one body by another is proportional to the mass of the
acting body and independent of the mass of the body acted upon. Applying his
rules of reasoning, he identifies the force of the Earth on the moon with
terrestrial gravity, and likewise the forces that solar system primaries exert
on their satellites, and concludes that gravitational force is universal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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There are lots of details, many of which Harper carefully
goes through. But that leaves open the question at issue, what is the general
form of Newton’s method? Newton expresses the same themes of “general induction
from the phenomena” at the end of the Opticks but we still want a general,
precise account of the method, whatever it is. How would we apply it or
recognize it in other cases? I essayed an account I called bootstrapping to
which various philosophers have offered objections I will not consider
here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Others, Jon Dorling for example,
have offered reconstructions. Harper discusses mine and rejects it citing the
various criticisms without further assessment. That’s ok, but what we should
expect is an alternative. Harper’s only suggestion is that Newton’s hypotheses
are “subjunctive.” We are left to wonder how that helps. Is Newton’s method
“subjunctive bootstrapping,” whatever that is, and, to engage the subjunctive,
what <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">would</i> that be and how <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">could </i>we recognize it or apply it in
other cases?</div>
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Harper resorts to vagaries, the substance of which is
ostensive: Newton’s method is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">like that</i>.
We <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">should</i> expect more from
philosophical explication than demonstratives.</div>
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